Yellow Bonds convert philanthropic guarantees into revolving research capital · unlocking billions for childhood cancer therapies stranded by market failure, not scientific failure.
The childhood cancer research ecosystem suffers from structural dysfunction · misaligned incentives, fragmented funding, and a market that systematically undervalues the lives of children. Here's what's broken.
Yellow Bonds transform philanthropic capital from a single-use resource into a perpetual funding mechanism through a six-step cycle.
Foundations commit ~$250M to a first-loss guarantee pool held in AAA Treasuries (SPV 1). This capital serves as credit enhancement, absorbing losses so investors are protected if research revenues fall short.
Backed by the philanthropic guarantee, SPV 2 issues the $500M Yellow Bond to institutional investors. The credit enhancement targets an investment-grade rating, making this investable for mainstream fixed-income allocators.
Bond proceeds fund a diversified portfolio of pediatric cancer research projects across cancer types, therapeutic mechanisms, and geographies.
Research assets generate revenue across the commercialization lifecycle through multiple independent pathways.
Do portfolio revenues fully repay the Yellow Bond principal?
Revenues repay the bond in full. No guarantee called. Pool rolls into next cycle.
Revenues exceed bond principal. Excess flows to BCCI for redistribution into the childhood cancer ecosystem.
Revenues fall short. Philanthropic guarantee in SPV 1 covers the gap to protect investors.
In Scenario B, surplus revenues flow to the Bardo Childhood Cancer Institute (BCCI), which distributes unrestricted funds across the childhood cancer ecosystem.
In Scenarios A and B, the guarantee pool remains intact and rolls forward to back the next Yellow Bond. Over 20 years and 5 issuance cycles (Series A through E), a single $250M commitment generates $2.5B in total research funding — a 10x multiplier.
Different stakeholders engage with different parts of the mechanism. Find your entry point.
Your $250M guarantee generates $2.5B in childhood cancer research over 20 years. Not through spending your capital, but through recycling it as collateral across five bond issuances.
An investment-grade bond with market-rate yield, backed by philanthropic first-loss protection, with direct measurable impact on childhood cancer outcomes. Impact that doesn't sacrifice returns.
Replace volatile annual grants with stable, multi-year research capital. Focus on the science, not the fundraising cycle.
Non-dilutive royalty financing for pediatric oncology assets. Yellow Bonds provide capital that preserves your equity, accelerates your timeline, and opens regulatory incentive pathways.
Between 2020 and 2050, childhood cancer will cost an estimated 318 million life-years. The Lancet projects a net return of $3 for every $1 invested in scaling proven interventions. Yellow Bonds create the financing infrastructure to capture that return.
Your lived experience is the moral foundation of this work. Yellow Bonds exist because 40 years without new treatments is unacceptable.
This section grows as our systems mapping study progresses. All outputs are published here as they are completed.
A comprehensive systems analysis identifying actors, feedback loops, leverage points, and structural dysfunction in the global pediatric oncology R&D funding ecosystem. Commissioned by Yellow Bond proponents with full disclosure of potential confirmation bias.
Monte Carlo simulation of repayment scenarios, portfolio construction analysis, and sensitivity testing across key assumptions.
Analysis of candidate therapies currently stalled in the Valley of Death, with development stage, funding gaps, and commercial potential. Builds on the Das et al. JAMA Oncology portfolio model.
Where Yellow Bonds act across Donella Meadows' 12 leverage points · from parameters to paradigm shifts. Identifies system rules, information flows, and goal reorientation.
Thematic analysis of 30–50 interviews across all stakeholder groups. Includes reaction matrix, concerns, conditions, and endorsements.
Yellow Bonds build on proven precedents in development finance. The components work · this is a novel combination, not a novel invention.
| Mechanism | Scale Achieved | Key Innovation | Yellow Bond Parallel |
|---|---|---|---|
Green Bonds Established | $2.5T+ cumulative issuance since 2007 | Earmarked bond proceeds for environmental projects; created entirely new asset class | Yellow Bonds apply the same earmarking principle to pediatric cancer research |
IFFIm / Vaccine Bonds Proven at Scale | $10.2B raised, 1B+ children immunized | Sovereign pledges as guarantee → bond issuance → frontloaded vaccine funding | Philanthropic guarantee → bond issuance → frontloaded research funding |
Development Impact Bonds Growing | $55M+ raised for health outcomes | Outcomes-based payments linking investor returns to measurable social impact | Revenue linkage to therapy success creates similar alignment of capital and outcomes |
Royalty Pharma Model Established | $24.6B deployed (2020–2024) | Synthetic royalty financing for drug development; proven asset class with established pricing | Yellow Bond revenue model directly mirrors royalty-backed pharmaceutical financing |
We believe intellectual honesty is a credential, not a liability. Here's what we're still working through.
Monte Carlo simulations are in progress. The repayment thesis depends on pediatric oncology approval rates holding at historical levels and royalty valuations remaining stable. We're stress-testing downside scenarios.
The guarantee pool requires 3–5 major foundations to commit $50–100M each. No commitments have been secured yet. This is a chicken-and-egg problem: investors want to see guarantees, foundations want to see investor interest.
Our target investment-grade rating depends on the guarantee structure, portfolio composition, and rating agency appetite for a novel instrument. Preliminary conversations have not yet occurred. This is a key dependency.
Built-in licensing provisions are necessary but not sufficient. The structural barriers to access in low-income countries (regulatory capacity, manufacturing, distribution) extend beyond what a financing mechanism alone can solve.
Disclosure: This study is commissioned by Yellow Bond proponents (The Bardo Foundation). The research methodology is designed to address confirmation bias through independent expert interviews, transparent assumptions, and sensitivity analysis. All limitations are documented.
Whether you're exploring a guarantee commitment, evaluating the bond as an investment, or want to contribute research · we'd welcome the conversation.
We respond to every inquiry personally. Expect a detailed reply within 48 hours, tailored to your stakeholder perspective and interest level.
Receive relevant updates as Yellow Bond development progresses. We'll tailor communications to your stakeholder perspective.
We'll send you updates relevant to your role as Yellow Bond development progresses. Expect a personal follow-up within 48 hours.